Changes in airline business models mean the 20-year demand for aircraft in the 210-seat category will be almost as high as the traditionally-popular 175-seat sector, Airbus is predicting.

Airbus has outlined demand for nearly 10,400 aircraft in the neutral 210-seat category, close to the 11,370 figure for 175-seat aircraft.

Senior vice-president for business analysis Bob Lange, speaking as the airframer unveiled its 2019-38 forecast in London, said that the change reflects a shift to larger types, particularly by low-cost carriers.

“The A320, at the time of launch, was a two-class aircraft with 150 seats,” he says, but the twinjet has become increasingly used by budget airlines in high-density all-economy layouts with up to 189 seats.

“Those low-cost carriers are upsizing to the 210-seat category, where we have the A321.”

Analysis of the rolling 10-year delivery statistics shows an “uptick” in deliveries in this larger sector, says Lange.