US helicopter manufacturer Sikorsky is working to close orders for up to 81 of its upgraded S-92A+ as it attempts to build a backlog to support production of up to 12 of the heavy-twins each year.
However, the airframer’s predictions show changing market dynamics for the S-92, a helicopter whose orders were historically dominated by the offshore oil and gas industry.
According to forecast documents seen by FlightGlobal, potential sales of six aircraft are at the most-advanced stages, described by Sikorsky as “best bets”, with an order for four head-of-state helicopters foreseen as early as this quarter.
Another 23 S-92A+ helicopters are “in the funnel”, while a further 54 are at an earlier stage in the sales process. Two used aircraft are included in the listing; those would be updated to the A+ standard.
Should orders be placed, a single delivery is predicted in each of 2026 and 2027 – both of them used aircraft – rising to five in 2029, 15 in 2030, five in 2031 and three in 2032.
Bar a single unit, Sikorsky does not forecast delivery dates for the 54 helicopters viewed as being the least advanced of the sales process.
Utility-role helicopters make up the bulk of Sikorsky’s forecast (48), followed by head-of-state aircraft (22) and search and rescue (8). Just five examples are allocated to offshore oil and gas – thought to be dedicated to Equinor’s Bay du Nord development in Canada.
Sikorsky has recently disclosed optimistic forecasts for the S-92A+ amid its establishment of a dedicated production line for the type in Owego, New York.
Speaking at the Verticon show in Atlanta on 10 March, Rich Benton, Sikorsky vice-president and general manager, said the airframer “anticipates further orders from head-of-state and offshore [customers] this year”.
Although production is now being scaled up, three S-92A+s being assembled this year are ‘white tails’ – aircraft built on spec in anticipation of later orders.
Leon Silva, vice-president of commercial and advanced programmes, believes there is “a very good chance of 12 per year going forward”; a rate of 10-12 per year “seems to be a sweet spot from an efficiency perspective”, he adds.
He points out that the three helicopters being built this year are in a “baseline configuration” that could then be adapted to any role.
But anyone expecting an S-92A+ quickly may be disappointed, Silva suggests that lead times will be around three years, depending on configuration.
To some extent, the prospects for the S-92A+ depend on how the helicopter is priced. FlightGlobal understands customers have been quoted in the $40-50 million range for an offshore-configured model.
Of course, head of state customers are less likely to focus on the list price. Rather many will simply want to emulate the US President, whose VH-92 Patriot is based on the S-92.
Sikorsky points out the latest S-92A+ variant comes with enhanced performance: it features the new Phase IV gearbox with additional run-dry capability, upgraded GE Aerospace CT7-8A6 engines and a 544kg (1,200lb) increase in maximum take-off weight to 12,564kg.
Pat Sheedy, chief executive of lessor Milestone Aviation, a major customer for the heavy-twin, believes the S-92 is currently enjoying a “renaissance”.
“We have seen operators and end-users really swing back to the S-92 as part of a dual-fleet platform,” he says.
Faced with the introduction of super-medium-class helicopters like the Airbus H175 and Leonardo AW189, Milestone had predicted a wave of S-92 retirements from their primary role would begin around 2028, but this has since been revised to the end of the decade.
That change has been driven by improvements to the S-92’s reliability and “almost the inverse on the super-mediums” where the “reliability has not been as advertised”, leading operators to conclude “it is not a one-for-one replacement”.
The S-92’s primary role remains oil and gas, with 71% of the in-service fleet configured for offshore operations.
While Sheedy sees a slow, but partial, replacement in that segment by super-medium-class helicopters, about two-thirds of missions can only be handled by heavy helicopters.
S-92s, he says, “are going to do that for the next 10 years – there’s no pressing need for a replacement product” – whether a super-medium or new-build S-92s.
Sebastien Moulin, Milestone’s chief commercial officer, thinks Sikorsky will “need to improve their timeline and price point”, at least in the short term, to attract interest from the offshore sector.
“But if they do, there is maybe a window where they could grab some of those. It’s never going to be big scale because we don’t expect large growth into this segment.”
With the Bell 525 also waiting in the wings – certification could finally happen this year – Sheedy thinks it is imperative that Sikorsky “gets out in front of them”.
“Certainly if they are taking orders today, they’d want to be able to deliver within two years,” he says.
Steve Robertson, who runs specialist consultancy Air & Sea Analytics, is similarly downbeat on prospects for new S-92A+ deliveries into the offshore market. “I’d be amazed if there were more than 10 aircraft in total,” he says.
Oil and gas orders will be “minor, if any”, he predicts, adding: “The end market has definitely changed – it’s a function of pricing and competition.” An H175 or AW189 is listed at around $21 million, he notes.
Robertson also thinks the current S-92 fleet will remain in service longer than currently thought. While the type has a 30,000h limit on the airframe, few are close to reaching that point.
“Timing out is not necessarily an issue, it’s more how long the end user will be prepared to have ageing aircraft in their fleet,” he adds.
