By 2038, Chinese airlines will need 10,344 aircraft, or about 21% of the global fleet.
This marks a dramatic increase from the current 3,854 aircraft, which is about 16% of the global fleet.
Chinese airframer Comac, which released its global aircraft forecast at last week’s Aviation Expo China in Beijing, says China will account for more than 9,000 forecasted aircraft deliveries in the next 20 years. China has the third largest fleet in the world currently, behind North America and Europe.
China’s single aisle fleet, which the Comac C919 will fall under, will grow to nearly 7,000 by end-2038, up from the current 3,118. Its widebody fleet will witness dramatic growth during the period, from the current 688 aircraft to 2,420 by 2038.
The country’s regional jet fleet, which hitherto has been relatively stable, will see a sharp increase in 20 years — Comac, which manufactures the ARJ21 regional jet — sees the fleet growing from 48 to 986.
The country’s total aircraft value by 2038 is expected to hit $1.42 trillion, the Comac forecast states.
Comac’s market forecast comes a day after Boeing released its China 20-year forecast.
Boeing states that the country will need 8,090 new commercial aircraft over the next 20 years in addition to $1.6 billion in services related to passenger air transport.